NO AIRLINE PILOT SHORTAGE

2 VASTLY DIFFERENT GROUPS OF GA PILOTS 

AND 

WHAT’S THE FUTURE FOR GENERAL AVIATION

I have written in the past about the slow demise of General Aviation (GA). My thoughts have not changed. 

I believe there are 2 types of GA pilots. One is the recreational pilot like myself that travels for pleasure. I’m based at Phoenix Deer Valley Airport (DVT) the busiest GA airport in the world. The reason for this is that DVT has one of the biggest flight schools in the country, TransPac. Without TransPac DVT would drop tremendously in operations. The same applies for other GA airports based in the Vally that have large flight schools training foreign pilots.

DVT T hangar wait list used to be over 5 years and now it is a matter of a few months to acquire a T Hangar. The recreational pilots I know are getting old. People are retired and are on fixed incomes. With this comes loss of medicals and less flying due to expense of fuel and maintenance. When people are flying less they do not maintain their proficiency as a pilot. I have a friend that owns 2 airplanes, one being a twin, and flew a total of 40 hours last year. 

Recreational flying is expensive and young people on the whole do not have the discretionary income to take up flying. They leave school with large debts and have to get by with regular living expenses.

Pilots in recreational flying usually own the older planes in the fleet which averages over 40 years of age. I fly a 59 year old V Tail Bonanza.

The second category of pilot is the one who mostly flies for business and has various tax write offs to help defray costs. Also in this group are people who made it good at a young age in life. These are the people that can afford the new Cirrus’s, Corvallis’s and Mirages. They are in the minority of GA pilots. 

As the GA pilot population decline, airports that don’t have large flight schools are going to start closing because they can not be financially maintained. FBO’s will fall by the wayside.

AIRLINE PILOT SHORTAGE

I hear it everyday listening to podcast and aviation blogs that their is going to be a major shortage of airline and corporate pilots. In August the new FAA rules go into effect for airlines that all first officers (FO’s) must have 1500 hours and an ATP. 

The other supposition is that there are going to be a lot of airline pilots turning 65 this year and facing forced retirement. There is talk of raising the retirement age to 67 to help aid airlines against mass retirements.

There are 2 reasons I don’t think we will be facing a pilot shortage in the near future. A lot of furloughed pilots are out there that have been unable to find work. These people will help fill the pipeline for retiring pilots. The retiring airline pilots will be able to continue to fill the void in corporate flight departments.

To fly for the airforce requirement is a 10 year commitment. Most of these pilots are resigning for a second ten year term. This will allow them to receive full retirement from the service. These pilots will be in their early 40’s when leaving the service and can start a second career with the airlines.

I believe that if a shortage of airline pilots is imminent that the airlines will petition the FAA to fly single pilot on the flight deck. With todays automation in new airliners I perceive this to be a possibility in the future. Overseas flights might operate with 2 pilots for takeoff and landing and 1 pilot for cruise.

I think that those who are going to be hit the hardest with these new regulations are the Regional Airlines. Most of the FO’s start with 250 hours and will loose their jobs due to the lack of 1500 hours and ATP which starts in August.

I really don’t know how someone can afford to accumulate 1500 hours financially. Starting pay in Regionals is so low that one can almost qualify for food stamps. The Military requirement will be 750 hours and University Flight schools 1000 hours. Unless the airlines go back as they did in the 60’s and start training and paying pilots to train, I don’t see any alternative to not have single pilot flight deck. Only time will tell.