MY OPINION

ARTHUR ROSEN

YOU BE THE JUDGE

Being a pilot is equivalent to having an extended family. When I fly into an airport and see a plane I admire, such as a WACO or a Beech Staggerwing, I walk over to take a look; and if the owner is around I usually receive a tremendous tour of the aircraft. I feel honored when someone comes up to me and inquires about my 1954 E Bonanza.

I love flying to a destination in my Bonanza, however as I age I want to be able to see the world and have been flying more on the airlines. We have had excellent luck on many airlines until a trip this winter on British Airlines. It was supposed to be an easy trip for us on BA flying Phoenix to London nonstop and then onto Madrid, but it was a disaster. This was the worst service I have ever encountered on an airline. It made me appreciate flying my own plane even more. Needless to sat we won’t be flying on BA anymore.

This leads me to the premise of this column. In 10 to 15 years l believe there won’t be any GA left in the US. When starting out in one’s career it is usual to leave college with debt, and If they go on to graduate school the debt builds up more quickly. These people have to have a place to live, car to maintain and eventually get married and start a family. Where is the money going to come from to take flying lessons? The cost of a private ticket is running anywhere from $10,000 to $15,000. With incurred debt there just aren’t funds left for discretionary spending.

Costs of used airplanes are low now. However there is still the added costs of maintenance, insurance and storage. Then there is the cost of fuel which is very expensive. I used to fly round trip from Scottsdale to San Diego for $99 fuel cost. That number is now $225, and it could go even higher this summer. Most people in this country right now are living pay check to pay check. There’s just isn’t money available for flying.

My generation, which makes up the majority of GA pilots, are either losing their medicals, dying off or had it with FAA restrictions. In 2020 if we want to fly in controlled airspace we will have to have a transponder, ADS-B out and an IFR GPS. My plane is worth $40,000. The costs to add these items will be around $25,000. It is surely not worth it to me to add this equipment to my airplane for no return. The airlines state they can save fuel and get there faster flying NextGen. I don’t believe that. There are approximately 400 airports that the airliners use, and they want to arrive and depart at the same time. There is just not enough concrete for them to receive a benefit from NextGen. I have still yet to figure out what benefit the piston GA pilot will receive from NextGen.

Arizona has a lot of flight training, more than California and Florida combined. The majority of flight training in Arizona is for foreign airline training. Embry Riddle, in Prescott, is training their students for the airlines here in the US. Embry Riddle students are paying $60,000 or more a year for college and flight training. When they finish school they are deep in debt and going off to low paying flight jobs in hope of landing that job with a big airline. Until then they are keeping Ramen Noodles in business.

Corporate aviation isn’t in much better shape. I am a member of the AZBAA which is the Arizona chapter of the NBAA. When I attend meetings I notice that the pilots are all in my age bracket being retired airline and military pilots. I don’t know who is going to replace them either.

The airlines are no better off facing a gluttony of upcoming retirements. I don’t see many ready to replace them walking into the cockpit. I think it would be in the airlines best behalf to recruit from colleges those that have an interest in aviation and pay for their flight training.

AOPA has been very busy in promoting new starts. Amelia Rose Earhart has been a great young ambassador for GA. We need more people like her in every State promoting GA. Our student pilot completion rate is unacceptably low. I have to believe that people know the costs involved going into their pilot training and am concerned about the high dropout rate. We need to do everything possible to promote aviation, and if knowing someone starting their training provide all support possible. We cannot afford even one dropout. AOPA used to have a program for student pilot mentors. I have no idea why they discontinued this. I had 2 student pilot mentors under the program. One was 57 years old and had no debt. He completed his training and bought a new Piper Saratoga. The other was a graduate student who thought she could make ends meet but in the end could not handle the extra expense to her budget. Friends kid me that my mentors were Orville and Wilbur. Actually I was very lucky that my neighbor was my mentor when I was 13. Charlie Dolson was one of the founders and past Chairman of Delta Airlines, and he gave me my first ride in a 172.

My concern is that young people cannot afford the expense to their budget to become pilots. We now have have over 5,000 airports to use. How will these airports survive if no one is using them? My hypothesis is that GA will cease to exist as we know it in 10 to 15 years and the airlines might have trouble filling positions. You be the judge.

Arthur Rosen is a retired Judge living in Scottsdale, AZ. Arthur is AOPA-ASN for Scottsdale Airport (SDL), was Chairman of the Scottsdale Aviation Commission, served on the Super Bowl Committee for Aviation, past President of Arizona Soaring Association and Aviation Expert for ABC TV-Phoenix. Arthur can be reached at Judge613@gmail.com, followed on Twitter at Judge613.